We have had a great response to our marathon survey. Following is an in-depth look at the results and some of the key reasons people gave for running a successful, or not-so-successful, race.

Overall results:

Over 2,500 marathoners have completed our survey so far. Here are the results of our analysis of the survey responses.

This bar chart shows the percentage of marathon finishers compared to minutes over/under their target times.

Summary:

31% of runners were on target within + 5 minutes of their goal. (A bulls-eye in marathon terms!)
41% were quite close, coming within 15 minutes over their target

27% met or beat their time goal.
73% did not meet their target.

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Are women more realistic than men in predicting their finish time?

Yes, slightly; 31% of women met or exceeded their marathon finish time compared to 25% of men

Which survey group was clearly better at meeting their time goal?

This turned out to be quite close between two different groups.

53% of the group who predicted times under 3 hours finished within plus or minus 5 minutes of their target, compared to the average for all runners of 30%.

Almost 50% of the runners in the 40-44 age group also finished within plus or minus 5 minutes of their goal.

The younger age groups from 18 - 39 were the least accurate in predicting their finish times.

Top five reasons for not meeting your marathon goal

As our survey indicates, most marathon runners do not achieve their time goal. The marathon is a very tough event and this is not altogether surprising. However, we all train hard for the race and most of us expect to do reasonably well. Here are the top five reasons stated for not meeting the target time.

Adverse Conditions: fully 32% of the people who didn't meet their goal gave this as the main reason. Specific reasons included the heat (this affected a lot of runners), hilly course, and headwinds.
Insufficient Training: 18% said that they should have done more training. The most common reasons given were insufficient weekly mileage and long runs.
Started Too Fast: 11% went out too quickly and ran out of energy during the second half.
Hit the Wall: Although almost 10% gave this as a reason. it is usually a result of one or more of the above such as insufficient training or starting to quickly for the conditions.
Injury or sickness: 6% stated they had a problem with previous injury or sickness prior to the race.

Top reasons for meeting your marathon goal

People who met their marathon time goal attributed the following different reasons to their success:

Proper Training: this accounted for 37% of the people who finished under their target time. Responses included things like, sticking to the training plan, training harder and getting help from a coach.
Right Strategy: 23% gave this reason, referring to things like setting a realistic goal, and not starting out to fast.
Previous experience: 12% cited previous marathon experience as the main reason they were able to meet their target