26.2 - the marathon: Home

For many of us, just finishing the marathon is enough. Sooner or later though, we all try to set a time goal that we can achieve. What this time goal should be however, can be quite difficult to determine. This article looks at the online marathon predictor calculators as well as other factors involved when you are setting your goal.

Marathon Time Calculators.

There are quite a few online calculators that give you a predicted marathon finish time based on your 10K or 5K times. Here are a few:

Marathon Guide: http://www.marathonguide.com/FitnessCalcs/predictcalc.cfm

Running times: http://www.runningtimes.com/rt/articles/?id=6765

3. Runners World UK http://www.runnersworld.co.uk/news/article.asp?UAN=1681

4. Runworks: http://www.runworks.com/calculator.html

5. Hal Higdon – uses a formula of 5 times your 10K time

I tested each of the above predictors based on a 45-minute 10K finish time. Here are the results:

Runworks	3hrs 27 mins
Runners World UK	3hrs 27 mins
Marathon Guide	3hrs 29 mins
Running times	3hrs 31 mins
Hal Higdon	3hrs 45 mins

As you can see they are all quite close, except for Hal Higdon’s, which is actually the one I prefer as being the most realistic.

I don’t totally agree with the calculators especially if you use a 5K time to project your marathon finish time. It just doesn’t work that way…otherwise everyone would be meeting his or her marathon time goal!!

In reality there are too many other factors that can affect your time during the marathon. It doesn’t matter what your 10K time was two months ago when you’re totally out of energy at the 20 mile mark in the marathon. That last 10K after the 20 mile point in the marathon can easily add an hour to your total time…

I’m not saying a 45 minute 10K can’t translate into a 3hrs 30 min marathon time. It can – if everything else falls into place.

Useful Links & Info

Track your marathon training with a customized training logbook.

www.personallogs.com

Includes a day-by-day marathon training schedule specific to the marathon date you select.

Key Factors that will affect your time are:

- Running ability and speed (This is what most race predictors are based upon)
- Your age
- Number of years you have been running

- Number of previous marathons
- Amount and intensity of your training
- Recent injuries
- Marathon day weather
- The marathon course

So as you see, there are a lot of things that can have an impact onyour final result. This is why normally fast runners have a disappointing race. They neglected to take into account the other factors and set their expectations too high.

So, how do you pick a realistic goal for your next marathon…?

Don’t pick a time!
Pick a time range! For example, instead of 3hrs 40 mins, you might select 3 hrs 35 mins – 3 hrs 45 mins. I always do this because it has built-in flexibility, so you can modify the time depending on race conditions.
If you are trying to qualify for Boston, then your qualifying time should be at the upper end of your target range times.

Use the Boston Marathon Qualifying times as a benchmark
The Boston times are based on your age, and assume you have a good base of running experience. I would say three years or more. You can use the time as a basis for determining your own goal.

AGE GROUP	MALE	FEMALE
18-34	3hrs 10min	3hrs 40min
35-39	3hrs 15min	3hrs 45min
40-44	3hrs 20min	3hrs 50min
45-49	3hrs 30min	4hrs 00min
50-54	3hrs 35min	4hrs 05min
55-59	3hrs 45min	4hrs 15min
60-64	4hrs 00min	4hrs 30min
65-69	4hrs 15min	4hrs 45min
70-74	4hrs 30min	5hrs 00min
75-79	4hrs 45min	5hrs 15min
80 and over	5hrs 00min	5hrs 30min

Adjust for the Key factors.
You might want to start with one of the calculators’ results or your Boston qualifying time, and then add extra time to compensate. For example if it’s a hilly course in extreme (very hot or cold) windy weather I would add 15 minutes (this is only 34 seconds per mile slower!) or more to my initial time estimate. Your age is also a big factor; it’s harder to put out a sustained effort for 26 miles when you are 55 years old compared to 40.

Turn it around!
Another way to approach your marathon goal is to decide a target time for yourself (within your abilities) and then adjust your training accordingly to meet this goal. You still need to make the adjustments for weather and course though.

Conclusion.
The bottom line is to be realistic, both about your abilities and the marathon conditions. A fast 5K doesn’t mean you can ‘ace’ the marathon the first (or even second or third!) time around. Running a good marathon time requires:
- Patience
- Marathon experience
- The proper running base and training
- Running strategically (i.e. don’t go charging out of the start line).

In the final analysis, you’ll be much happier (and less likely to get injured) finishing your marathon within a realistic time range, than failing to meet a faster time goal.

In my Marathon Race Strategies report I talk more about adjusting your time expectations on race day, and how to run the race so you still have energy reserves after the 20-mile mark.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

26.2 Marathon Survey

Did you meet your marathon goal? Help us to measure the overall performance of marathon participants by completing our I minute survey below. We will compile the data and publish updated results every week. The goal is to find out whether people generally achieve their target time or not and if not - why not?

Marathon Results: Quick Survey
Name of your last marathon
Marathon Date	Month:	Day: Year:
Select male or female & Age Category	Male: Female:		Age Category
Number of weeks training - # of marathons	Weeks Training		Previous Marathons
Actual vs. Target time	Hours	Minutes	Seconds
Enter your Target time
Enter your Actual time
Enter the reason you feel that you met/did not meet your time goal

Marathon Training